Author: admin

Following a year of positive shifts across most segments, the residential real estate market in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) and its neighboring provinces enters 2026 with an increasingly optimistic outlook. Primary supply is forecasted to improve significantly and demand is showing signs of recovery, even as price levels continue to reach new heights.

According to a report by DKRA Consulting, 2025 marked a notable turnaround for the residential market after a prolonged period of stagnation. The apartment segment was the primary driver of this recovery, with primary supply surging 73% compared to 2024.

HCMC maintained its leadership role, accounting for 87% of the total primary supply. Notably, the area of former Binh Duong province contributed more than 29,000 new apartments, representing 53% of the year’s total new supply.

Market liquidity improved markedly, though it remained concentrated in projects with complete legal status, synchronized infrastructure, and those developed by reputable firms. Parallel to the recovery in demand, apartment prices continued their upward trajectory. Primary selling prices in HCMC recorded increases ranging from 4% to 16% depending on the area, while secondary market prices rose by an average of 10% to 18% year-on-year.

In the land plot segment, consumption in 2025 rose by approximately 69% compared to 2024, despite primary supply increasing only a marginal 2%—remaining well below pre-2022 levels. Transactions remained highly selective, focusing on projects with finished infrastructure and legal transparency.

Tay Ninh emerged as a new hotspot, leading in both supply and consumption with 38% and 53% of the total market share, respectively. Primary price levels rose by an average of 6%, while secondary prices typically increased by 12% to 15%.

The townhouse and villa segment recorded its strongest growth since 2020, with consumption volume multiplying 6.5 times compared to 2024. However, DKRA Consulting noted that this growth was localized—primarily concentrated in areas such as Can Gio, Duc Hoa, Ben Luc, and Nhon Trach—and does not yet reflect a uniform recovery across the entire market. Secondary prices in this segment maintained an upward trend, generally rising between 12% and 19%.

DKRA Consulting forecasts that the residential market will maintain its recovery momentum in 2026, though growth will likely be distinct only in specific segments and regions. The primary driver is the gradual unblocking of legal hurdles through a series of newly issued decrees and decisions, which has enabled more projects to qualify for construction and sales. Additionally, a stable macroeconomic environment and expectations surrounding the pilot removal of “credit rooms” are viewed as critical support factors for capital flow within the market.

Apartment Supply is expected between 30,000 and 35,000 units, mainly in HCMC, former Binh Duong, and Tay Ninh. While land plot supply is approximately 3,500 to 4,000 new plots, largely from large-scale urban projects in former Long An and Binh Duong.

Mr. Vo Hong Thang, Deputy General Director of DKRA Consulting, observed that the market’s greatest challenge in 2026 is not supply or policy, but rather the fact that primary prices remain anchored at high levels. “The market recovery remains selective and uneven,” Mr. Thang emphasized. “If selling prices continue to rise rapidly while financial support policies narrow, market absorption capacity will face significant pressure, particularly among those with genuine housing needs.”

Evidence from 2025 shows that market liquidity depended heavily on sales incentives, such as interest rate subsidies, principal grace periods, or extended payment schedules. If these tools are not maintained at sufficient levels while input and infrastructure costs continue to push prices higher, the risk of a “mismatch” between pricing and actual purchasing power will become more pronounced in 2026.

Consequently, the 2026 recovery is expected to be conditional. Capital is likely to prioritize projects with verified legal status, reasonable pricing, and practical utility. Conversely, products with prices inflated far beyond real demand—regardless of infrastructure benefits or short-term expectations—will face liquidity risks as the market enters a more rigorous phase of screening and consolidation.