Vietnam Economic Update: First Two Months of 2026 – FDI Trends, Trade Surge, HCMC Project Cancellations, and Major Infrastructure Advances

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1/ Registered FDI Drops 12.6% Year-on-Year in First Two Months

According to the Statistics Bureau under the Ministry of Finance, realized Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Vietnam during the first two months of the year reached an estimated $3.21 billion, an 8.8% increase compared to the same period last year. This represents the highest level of disbursed capital for this period in the past five years. Specifically, the manufacturing and processing sector accounted for $2.65 billion (82.7% of total realized capital), followed by real estate at $223.5 million (7.0%), and the production and distribution of electricity, gas, and hot water at $119.2 million (3.7%).

Despite the strong disbursement figures, total registered FDI into Vietnam reached only $6.03 billion, marking a 12.6% decline year-on-year. Regarding new projects, 620 were licensed with a total registered capital of $3.54 billion, representing a 20.2% increase in project volume and a 61.5% surge in registered value compared to the previous year. Manufacturing and processing led this category with $2.63 billion (74.3% of new registrations), followed by wholesale, retail, and vehicle repair at $358.6 million (10.1%), while remaining sectors contributed $550.5 million (15.6%).

Among the 44 countries and territories with newly licensed projects, South Korea emerged as the leading investor with $1.34 billion (37.8% of new capital). Singapore followed with $1.1 billion (31.1%), China with $522.8 million (14.8%), Japan with $171.0 million (4.8%), Hong Kong with $143 million (4.0%), the U.S. with $85.6 million (2.4%), and Samoa with $68.7 million (1.9%).

Furthermore, 180 existing projects registered capital adjustments totaling $1.99 billion, a sharp 52.3% decrease compared to the same period last year. When combining both new and adjusted capital, manufacturing and processing secured $4.16 billion (75.2% of the total), wholesale and retail reached $392.7 million (7.1%), and other industries accounted for $979.7 million (17.7%).

Foreign investor activity in capital contributions and share purchases saw 492 transactions with a total value of $499.5 million, a 5.7% decline year-on-year. This included 128 instances of equity increases valued at $297.8 million and 364 domestic equity buyouts totaling $201.7 million. Within this category, investment into manufacturing and processing reached $244.7 million (49.0%), while wholesale and retail accounted for $103.7 million (20.8%), and other sectors made up the remaining $151.1 million (30.2%).

2/ Imports and Exports Up 22% in First Two Months, Trade Deficit Reaches Nearly $3 Billion

According to the Statistics Bureau (Ministry of Finance), the total import-export turnover of goods in February reached $67.16 billion, a decrease of 24.1% compared to the previous month but an increase of 5.1% over the same period last year. For the first two months of 2026, total import-export turnover reached $155.7 billion, up 22.2% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 18.3% and imports rising by 26.3%. The trade balance for goods recorded a deficit of $2.98 billion.

Specifically, export turnover in February reached $33.06 billion, down 23.7% from the previous month. Within this, the domestic economic sector accounted for $6.44 billion, down 33.1%, while the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) reached $26.62 billion, down 21%. Compared to the same period last year, February export turnover rose by 5.7%, with the domestic sector decreasing by 24.3% and the foreign-invested sector increasing by 17%. Over the two-month period, export turnover reached $76.36 billion, up 18.3% year-on-year.

In the two-month cumulative figures, the domestic economic sector contributed $15.96 billion, a 12% decrease, accounting for 20.9% of total exports. The foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) reached $60.4 billion, a 30.1% increase, representing 79.1% of the total. There were 13 commodity groups with export turnover exceeding $1 billion, accounting for 79.9% of the total, including 4 groups exceeding $5 billion, which made up 57.4%. Regarding the structure by group: processed industrial goods reached $68.55 billion (89.8%); agricultural and forestry products reached $5.8 billion (7.6%); seafood products reached $1.72 billion (2.2%); and fuels and minerals reached $0.29 billion (0.4%).

On the import side, goods turnover in February reached $34.1 billion, a 24.6% decrease from the previous month. The domestic sector reached $9.55 billion, down 27.5%, and the foreign-invested sector reached $24.55 billion, down 23.4%. Year-on-year, February import turnover increased by 4.4%, with the domestic sector falling by 19.6% while the foreign-invested sector rose by 18.1%. For the first two months, import turnover reached $79.34 billion, up 26.3% year-on-year; the domestic sector reached $22.47 billion, down 1.5%, and the foreign-invested sector reached $56.87 billion, a 42.2% increase.

There were 16 imported items with a value exceeding $1 billion, accounting for 77.8% of total imports, including 2 items exceeding $5 billion, representing 50.2%. Regarding the structure of imported goods in the first two months of 2026, production materials reached $74.67 billion (94.1%), of which machinery, equipment, and spare parts accounted for 56%, and raw materials and fuels accounted for 38.1%. Consumer goods reached $4.67 billion (5.9%).

In terms of trade markets for the first two months, the United States remained Vietnam’s largest export market with a turnover of $23.8 billion. China was the largest import market with a turnover of $31.9 billion. Specifically, the trade surplus with the U.S. reached $20.4 billion, up 20.8% year-on-year; the trade surplus with the EU was $6.7 billion, up 6.5%; and the trade surplus with Japan was $0.3 billion, down 43.1%. Conversely, the trade deficit with China was $20.9 billion, up 35.7%; the trade deficit with South Korea was $6.5 billion, up 41.5%; and the trade deficit with ASEAN was $2.6 billion, up 20.7%.

3/ Ho Chi Minh City Cancels 3,100-Unit Apartment Complex Project in Nha Rong – Khanh Hoi

The investment policy for the Nha Rong – Khanh Hoi Complex project on a prime riverside plot along the Saigon River has been revoked as it no longer aligns with current planning and legal regulations. The HCMC People’s Committee recently decided to rescind two previous documents: Decision No. 6815 (dated December 29, 2016) and Decision No. 177 (dated January 12, 2018), which originally approved the project’s investment policy.

According to city authorities, these decisions are no longer consistent with current legal provisions and planning orientations. Specifically, the project’s content does not align with the planning direction approved by the Prime Minister in Decision 1125 dated June 11, 2025. Furthermore, it is inconsistent with the Financial Regulations issued under the Prime Minister’s Decision 46/2010 and the administrative authority stipulated in the Government’s Decree 118/2015.

Previously, the Standing Committee of the HCMC Party Committee reached a consensus to halt the apartment complex project and transition the entire Nha Rong – Khanh Hoi area into a park and Ho Chi Minh Cultural Space. The revocation of the previous investment approvals serves as a legal step toward implementing this new direction.

The project site spans approximately 32 hectares along the Saigon River, adjacent to the former District 1 center and just a few hundred meters from Nguyen Hue Walking Street and Bach Dang Wharf. This area houses Nha Rong Wharf—now the Ho Chi Minh Museum, HCMC branch—linked to the historic event of June 5, 1911, when Nguyen Tat Thanh departed Saigon to find a way to national salvation.

In late 2016, HCMC had authorized Ngoc Vien Dong Urban Development and Investment Co., Ltd. to invest in a complex featuring a commercial center, over 3,100 apartments, schools, and medical stations. Under the 1/2000 scale detailed planning approved in 2015, only 4% of the land was designated for public parks, with the majority allocated for high-rise housing and technical infrastructure. Under the new plan, approximately 60% of the land will be dedicated to greenery and water surfaces, 20% to public works, and 20% for an international port. Consequently, the parkland ratio increases roughly 15-fold compared to the previous plan.

4/ Ho Chi Minh City Enterprises Impacted by Middle East Tensions

The Management Board of Ho Chi Minh City Export Processing Zones and Industrial Parks (HEPZA) reports that a rapid assessment of corporate operations reveals that tensions in the Middle East have disrupted the supply chains and international trade activities of many local enterprises. HCMC currently has 66 established Export Processing Zones (EPZs) and Industrial Parks (IPs) covering a total area of over 27,270 hectares. Within these, 58 EPZs and IPs are home to 4,689 active projects, including more than 300 export-processing enterprise projects.

In 2025, the total revenue of enterprises within these EPZs and IPs was estimated at approximately $80 billion. Of this, export turnover reached about $48.4 billion, while import turnover stood at roughly $36.6 billion. However, since import-export turnover with Middle Eastern countries accounts for only 3–5% of the total, the direct impact is currently assessed as relatively limited.

Nevertheless, because enterprises in these EPZs and IPs maintain high international trade exposure and rely heavily on imported raw materials and foreign consumer markets, fluctuations in the Middle East have caused widespread ripple effects. One of the most prominent impacts is the disruption of raw material supply chains as numerous maritime shipping routes through the Red Sea face difficulties.

Several enterprises importing raw materials from Europe reported prolonged transit times as vessels must reroute around the Cape of Good Hope (South Africa), adding 3–4 weeks to delivery schedules and significantly increasing logistics costs. In the electronics and components sector, some firms are experiencing shortages of imported chips and semiconductors from Europe. To maintain production schedules, many businesses have been forced to switch to air freight, leading to a sharp spike in costs.

Enterprises in the garment and footwear industries also face risks of delayed deliveries, with the potential cancellation of summer orders from European partners if timelines are not met. Meanwhile, the chemical and plastics sectors are grappling with rising input costs for resins, solvents, and additives, which track global oil price fluctuations. For the food and seafood industries—particularly fresh and frozen goods—airspace restrictions in certain regions have forced cargo flights to reroute or cancel, resulting in higher transportation fees and the risk of cargo spoilage. Furthermore, vessel diversions have exacerbated the shortage of empty containers at HCMC ports. Many enterprises reported that while production is complete, they cannot export as planned due to blank sailings by shipping lines, leading to increased warehousing and preservation costs.

5/ Over 4,000 km of Expressways Completed and Under Construction Nationwide

To date, numerous terminal, port, bridge, and road projects have been initiated, inaugurated, and accelerated for implementation. Specifically, the country has completed 3,345 km of expressways, surpassing the initial target of 3,000 km. Furthermore, the North-South expressway axis from Cao Bang to Ca Mau has basically been completed with technical traffic opened across the entire route.

In the coming period, Government leaders have requested ministries, sectors, localities, investors, and contractors to continue finalizing the remaining components of various projects to bring bridges, terminals, ports, and roads into synchronized operation, thereby maximizing and optimizing the operational efficiency of the expressway network.

Simultaneously, projects must continue to add and refine auxiliary facilities and perfect the expressway system planning in alignment with socio-economic development plans. According to Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, the Resolution of the 14th National Party Congress continues to identify three strategic breakthroughs: infrastructure development, institutions, and human resources, with a goal of reaching 5,000 km of expressways nationwide by 2030. Currently, the country has completed and started construction on more than 4,000 km of expressways. Moving forward, investment will continue for horizontal axis expressways and road and rail routes connecting to Long Thành International Airport.

6/ Two Metro Lines Connecting Central HCMC to Long Thành Airport Set for Groundbreaking

In a recent report submitted to the Ministry of Construction, the HCMC Department of Construction stated that two lines connecting to Long Thành Airport—Bến Thành – Thủ Thiêm and Thủ Thiêm – Long Thành—are among the city’s top priority investment projects. The total length of this railway axis exceeds 50 km. Once completed, the network will link central HCMC with the airport in Đồng Nai province and integrate with the currently operational Bến Thành – Suối Tiên metro line.

The Department of Construction noted that both projects are being proposed by Trường Hải Group (Thaco) under the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model, specifically via Build-Transfer (BT) contracts. For the Bến Thành – Thủ Thiêm line, HCMC has assigned the enterprise to prepare a feasibility study report, with construction expected to commence in April and reach completion within five years. Under the current plan, the Bến Thành – Thủ Thiêm section is approximately 6 km long, runs underground, and serves as a segment of HCMC’s Metro Line 2. Thaco’s preliminary proposal estimates a total investment of around 33 trillion VND.

The project of Thủ Thiêm – Long Thành line has been converted from a light rail to an urban railway, with HCMC designated as the competent authority for implementation. Following Thaco’s proposal, the city is considering assigning the firm to conduct research, aiming for a groundbreaking before June 30 and completion by 2030. Previous studies for this metro line estimated a length of approximately 48 km—comprising 42 km of the main line and 4.4 km of depot lead tracks—with a projected total capital of about $3.5 billion (over 84 trillion VND).

HCMC leadership assesses these two metro lines as pivotal links connecting the strategic regions of HCMC and Đồng Nai, enhancing public transport capacity and establishing seamless connectivity between Long Thành Airport, central HCMC, and Tân Sơn Nhất Airport. The city aims to finish both lines before 2030 and has urged relevant units to expedite resource mobilization to ensure progress and quality.

Currently, Long Thành Airport is in its final stages of completion and is expected to begin operations by mid-2026. However, it still faces the challenge of transport connectivity with neighboring localities, particularly HCMC, which accounts for the majority of its passenger volume. In addition to the aforementioned projects, HCMC broke ground on the Bến Thành – Tham Lương section of Metro Line 2 in January this year. This line includes the Bà Quẹo station near Tân Sơn Nhất Airport, which is expected to serve as a transit point for passengers heading to Bến Thành station before continuing along the Bến Thành – Thủ Thiêm – Long Thành axis.

From now until 2030, HCMC is also prioritizing Phase 1 of Metro Line 6 (Tân Sơn Nhất – Phú Hữu), a line that directly connects to Tân Sơn Nhất Airport and forms a transit axis to Thủ Thiêm – Long Thành. Furthermore, the project to extend Metro Line 1 through Đồng Nai to Long Thành is also included in the city’s list of priority urban railway developments.

7/ VinFast to Invest 13 Trillion VND in Electric Motorcycle Factory in Ha Tinh

The Ha Tinh Province Economic Zone Management Board has officially signed and issued the Investment Registration Certificate for an electric motorcycle manufacturing plant project in Vung Ang to VinFast Mirror Manufacturing and Trading JSC. Ha Tinh has authorized VinFast to implement the factory with a total registered capital of over 13,254 billion VND. The project will be constructed on an area of more than 64 hectares, occupying portions of plots CN4 and CN5 within the central industrial zone subdivision of the Vung Ang Economic Zone, specifically located inside the Vinhomes Vung Ang Industrial Park.

According to the approved design, the factory will have a maximum capacity of 2 million vehicles per year once fully operational. The product lineup includes electric motorcycles and electric bicycles, supported by a system of workshops and auxiliary facilities for manufacturing activities.

The project will be implemented in two phases. Phase one, expected within 2026, aims to reach a capacity of 1 million vehicles per year. Phase two, projected to start from late 2026, will increase the total capacity to 2 million vehicles per year. According to the proposed schedule, administrative procedures and construction activities will be finalized in the first quarter of 2026, before the factory enters mass production starting from the second quarter of the same year.

8/ HCMC Seeks Strategic Investors for Can Gio International Transshipment Port Project

In case of only one investor proposes and meets the strategic investor criteria as prescribed, the selection decision will be reviewed and finalized. Should two or more strategic investors submit valid applications within 7 days of the first valid submission, the investment registration agency will report to the HCMC People’s Committee to issue scoring criteria and establish a Strategic Investor Selection Council by category to ensure transparency and fairness in the selection process.

Proposals from strategic investors will be accepted starting from the date this announcement is officially posted on the City’s Electronic Information Portal. The investment registration agency will not consider and will return applications from other investors submitted after the 7-day deadline from the receipt of the first valid dossier. Applications are to be submitted at the HCMC Public Administration Service Center or through the National Public Service Portal as regulated.

Strategic investors interested in the project are responsible for researching Resolution No. 98/2023/QH15, Resolution No. 260/2025/QH15, and related legal regulations to prepare their proposals. These must clearly demonstrate financial capacity, experience, investment plans, project implementation conditions, and commitments ensuring alignment with the HCMC’s development orientation.

The City People’s Committee encourages reputable and capable strategic investors to participate in researching and proposing the implementation of the Can Gio International Transshipment Port. The project has a massive investment scale of approximately 128 trillion VND and is classified as a special seaport with significant impacts on socio-economic development, national defense, security, and the environment.

The project’s planning was approved by the Prime Minister in Decision No. 442/QD-TTg dated May 22, 2024, and Decision No. 140/QD-TTg dated January 16, 2025; with the investment policy approved in Decision No. 148/QD-TTg dated January 16, 2025. The project falls under the List of industries and professions prioritized for attracting strategic investors to the City, as stipulated in point c, clause 1, Article 7 of National Assembly Resolution No. 98/2023/QH15 on piloting specific mechanisms and policies for the development of HCMC (as amended and supplemented by Resolution No. 260/2025/QH15).

 

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